Week 25: September 21-28

Last week:

Team	BA	OBP	SLG	ERA	K/9	W/9	HR/9	BIPA
A.T.P.L.Strikes Back	0.281	0.362	0.469	3.86	5.54	4.10	0.96	0.258
Ballard Killbots	0.305	0.386	0.508	5.27	5.93	4.39	1.10	0.294
Barry...On Trial	0.327	0.388	0.453	7.52	9.91	3.08	0.68	0.432
BattlestarGrantica	0.213	0.290	0.368	3.86	7.35	2.02	0.55	0.287
B-Town Momma J	0.274	0.362	0.429	5.09	7.90	4.33	1.78	0.272
Bumpin' Utleys	0.297	0.376	0.434	4.18	7.80	3.42	0.38	0.327
ConfusedCricketClub	0.273	0.335	0.486	2.25	8.25	2.25	0.56	0.265
Duck Islanders	0.316	0.353	0.548	3.26	5.55	3.26	0.57	0.217
Halfprice Henchmen	0.348	0.395	0.603	5.21	7.58	4.03	1.42	0.293
Hammarby BbK	0.289	0.321	0.380	3.56	7.95	3.35	1.05	0.278
Honkbal Staars	0.328	0.396	0.503	8.20	8.20	4.82	2.41	0.350
Leapin' Lirianos	0.274	0.361	0.423	5.40	7.13	1.94	1.73	0.270
Mapleleaf FBC	0.244	0.340	0.335	3.47	8.84	2.05	0.79	0.327
Sam Zell is a Douche	0.302	0.398	0.547	4.20	6.80	3.40	0.60	0.257
WalnutCreekWolfpack	0.354	0.424	0.583	5.12	7.94	3.71	0.18	0.368
League Average	0.295	0.365	0.471	4.50	7.61	3.28	0.91	0.303

I'm 150 points out of the money, and my team squeaks out a .213/.290/.368 line? You guys are all fired. At least the Staaaaaars put up a hilarious 8.20 ERA. I guess that gives me the strength to put in one more week.

Here is the whole fajita:

Team	BA	OBP	SLG	ERA	K/9	W/9	HR/9	BIPA
Duck Islanders	0.292	0.341	0.460	3.25	8.07	3.39	0.66	0.269
Mapleleaf FBC	0.275	0.355	0.451	3.08	7.77	2.60	0.85	0.278
WalnutCreekWolfpack	0.274	0.350	0.442	3.74	8.31	2.88	0.98	0.290
Bumpin' Utleys	0.281	0.349	0.440	3.23	7.89	2.59	0.82	0.280
Ballard Killbots	0.278	0.357	0.478	4.17	7.73	3.34	1.18	0.284
BattlestarGrantica	0.265	0.342	0.448	3.97	7.73	2.92	1.07	0.280
Hammarby	0.277	0.339	0.444	3.84	6.52	2.95	1.08	0.276
Honkbal Staars	0.278	0.349	0.444	3.96	8.45	3.84	0.96	0.276
Sam Zell is a Douche	0.286	0.363	0.468	4.13	7.54	3.31	0.92	0.286
Barry...On Trial	0.285	0.353	0.463	4.24	7.48	2.78	1.04	0.285
Leapin' Lirianos	0.273	0.351	0.458	4.31	7.47	2.54	1.13	0.296
B-Town Momma J	0.273	0.335	0.445	3.94	6.89	3.00	0.93	0.280
Halfprice Henchmen	0.286	0.357	0.483	4.45	7.80	3.33	1.12	0.293
ConfusedCricketClub	0.268	0.339	0.463	4.29	7.33	3.01	1.09	0.299
A.T.P.L.Strikes Back	0.278	0.355	0.460	4.05	7.07	3.65	1.07	0.273
League Average	0.278	0.349	0.456	3.90	7.61	3.07	0.99	0.283

Look at that homogenization! Everyone is within 30 points of BA, OBP, and roughly 40 points of SLG. Here's how this stacks up against previous seasons:

	BA	OBP	SLG	ERA	K/9	W/9	HR/9	BIPA
League 2006	0.283	0.354	0.473	4.10	7.19	2.83	1.05	0.285
League 2007	0.284	0.354	0.465	4.03	7.26	2.91	0.95	0.287
League 2008	0.281	0.350	0.459	3.87	7.42	3.00	0.93	0.284
League 2009	0.278	0.349	0.456	3.90	7.61	3.07	0.99	0.283

The steady march downhill offensively does not surprise me, since a fairly static pool of talent has been spread over an increasing number of teams each year. What is surprising to me is the overall improvement of pitching, in both results and components. Is this a function of baseball, or of our fantasy league?

Last year there were some relatively tight races for the money going into the last week of the season. Things are not nearly as close this year, although at first glance it seems like there is still some intrigue. Hate to break it to you, but here are the chances of the top-6 teams overcoming the team ahead (using full-week data from the season to establish probabilities):

Event	Chance
Battlestar passes Killbots	0.0087
Killbots passes Utleys	0.0938
Utleys passes Wolfpack	0.0087
Wolfpack passes FBC	0.0833
FBC passes Duck Island	0.0052

Looks like the most probable exciting upset would be Killbots overtaking the Bumpin' Utleys to claim all of the glory and splendor of 4th place. Wooooo!

Sigh, and to think that I was holding hope for a final week blaze of glory.